JANEIRO RIOOn Sunday and Monday, Brazil will host a summit of the BRICS group of developing nations, where sensitive subjects including Israel’s strike on Iran, the Gaza humanitarian catastrophe, and trade tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump are anticipated to be handled cautiously.
The lack of unity inside the BRICS, which quadrupled in size last year, could hinder its potential to become another global powerhouse, according to analysts and diplomats. Additionally, they interpret the mild agenda of the summit as an effort by participating nations to avoid Trump’s attention.
During the discussions with important leaders who are not present, Brazilian President Luiz Incio Lula da Silva will prioritize some of his issues, such as discussions on climate change and artificial intelligence.
For the first time since assuming power in 2012, Chinese President Xi Jinping will not be attending a BRICS summit. Due to an international arrest order issued during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to largely shun international travel, even though he will be making an appearance via videoconference.
Argument about words on contentious issues
The expected restraint in Rio de Janeiro differs from the Russian-hosted Kazan summit last year, when the Kremlin attempted to create alternatives to American-dominated payment systems that would enable it to evade Western sanctions following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Some members of the group want more aggressive language regarding the situation in Gaza and Israel’s strike on Iran, a source participating in the negotiations told journalists on Friday. Since they were not permitted to discuss the issue in public, the source talked on condition of anonymity.
Oliver Stuenkel, a professor at the university and think tank Getulio Vargas Foundation, stated that Brazil wants the summit to be as technical as possible.
As a result, observers anticipate an ambiguous final statement about Russia’s war in Ukraine and Middle Eastern crises.
According to Stuenkel, the absence of Xi and Putin may facilitate a softer, less contentious message that also fits Brazil. In contrast to Brazil and India, which favor non-alignment, those two nations have advocated for a more robust anti-Western posture.
“The group is expected to produce three joint statements and a final declaration, all of which are less bounded by current geopolitical tensions,” a Brazilian government official told The Associated Press Thursday. Since the official was not permitted to discuss the summit’s preparations in public, they talked on condition of anonymity.
According to Jo o Alfredo Nyegray, a professor of international commerce and geopolitics at the Pontifical Catholic University in Parana, the summit failed to provide a viable alternative to an uncertain globe.
According to Nyegray, the BRICS are having trouble establishing itself as a unified pole of global leadership, as evidenced by the withdrawal of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and the ambiguity surrounding the representation of nations like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. High-level articulation is required at this moment, yet dispersion is what we are witnessing.
Brazil is wary about Trump’s tariffs.
Global healthcare cooperation; trade, investment, and finance; climate change; artificial intelligence governance; peacemaking and security; and institutional development are the six strategic goals that Brazil, the bloc’s leader, has selected for the summit.
Since Trump’s return to the White House, it has chosen to concentrate on less contentious topics, such boosting member trade relations and global health, according to Ana Garcia, a professor at Rio de Janeiro Federal Rural University.
According to Garcia, Brazil wants the least amount of harm possible and to keep the Trump administration from being aware of it in order to avoid endangering its economy.
Brazil wants to avoid becoming the target of tariffs, a situation it has so far mostly avoided, even though it will continue to support the group’s core aim of reforming Western-led international institutions.
If the group does anything to weaken the dollar, Trump has threatened to slap 100% tariffs.
The gathering is avoided by other leaders.
Absent will also be Egypt’s Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Together with Ethiopia, Indonesia, and the United Arab Emirates, the two nations became members of the BRICS in 2024. Saudi Arabia has not yet sent its confirmation letter, despite having been invited and taking part in member talks.
In addition to new members, the bloc now has ten strategic partners, which includes Cuba, Vietnam, and Belarus and was established at the summit last year.
Brazil put housekeeping issues, technically known as institutional development, on the agenda in order to improve internal cohesiveness and better integrate new members as a result of its rapid expansion.
Bruce Scheidl, a researcher at the University of Sao Paulo’s BRICS study group, stated that the summit is crucial for participants despite the significant absences, particularly given the instability sparked by Trump’s trade conflicts.
According to Scheidl, emerging nations have the best chance to react to the summit by looking for alternatives and broadening their economic alliances.
The conference will provide Lula with a much-needed reprieve from a challenging home situation that includes a decline in popularity and a falling out with Congress.
Prior to the COP 30 climate discussions in the Amazonian city of Belem in November, the summit also offers a chance to advance climate negotiations and environmental protection agreements.
