A weapon that stood out from the rest was discovered by Ukrainian drone hunters last week when they were gathering up the wreckage from Russia’s nightly attack on their cities.
An operator could remotely drive it from Russia thanks to its sophisticated camera, artificial intelligence-powered computing platform, and radio link. According to a Ukrainian drone specialist, it also included new anti-jamming equipment manufactured in Iran.
According to electronics specialist Serhii Beskrestnov, better known by his stage name Flash, the majority of Russian assault drones are black. He informed The Associated Press that the new one was white.
There were no labels or markings inside that would have identified them as Russian-made drones. According to Beskrestnov, the labels instead used a common Iran labeling scheme.
Although the labels are not definitive evidence, experts who talked to AP stated that the English-language terms are in line with how Iran designates its drones. They stated it is very likely that Iran sold it to Russia for military testing.
Over the course of the conflict, which is currently in its fourth year, Moscow has attacked Ukraine virtually every night with drones built in Iran. As air defenses and sharpshooters aim, they swarm above Ukrainian cities, their moped-like sound filling the air. Many are decoys, but others contain warheads.
Russia’s drone tactics and technology are getting better, and it is increasingly successfully attacking Ukraine. However, the U.K. Defense Ministry stated that since Tehran had given Moscow large amounts of attack drones, Israel’s attacks on Iran would probably have a detrimental effect on future deliveries of Iranian military hardware to Russia.
Israel’s assaults on Iran
The Israeli military declined to comment on what it hit. The effect on Iran’s drone sector is still unclear, despite the fact that it has carried out extensive attacks on Iranian military installations and American-bombed nuclear sites.
According to Beskrestnov, the anti-jammer on the most recent drone found in Ukraine incorporated novel Iranian technology. Other parts for Russian drones are frequently imported from China, Russia, and the West.
Most of Russia’s drones are currently manufactured in Russia, however they are based on an Iranian design.
Furthermore, experts warned that the immediate impact on Moscow’s drone program might be minimal because a large portion of the technology needed to produce them—including Iranian software and technical know-how—has already been transferred to Russia.
However, experts warned that Moscow might experience a scarcity of supplies if Israel attacked factories that make drones and parts that are supplied to Russia, like engines and anti-jamming systems.
A clandestine Russian factory
In a very secure workshop in central Russia, Moscow produces Farsi drones based on an Iranian model, a sign of its Shahed significance.
Following a $1.7 billion agreement between Russia and Iran, the Alabuga facility in the Tatarstan region received its first shipment of Iranian drones in 2022. Later, it set up its own manufacturing lines and produced thousands of them.
According to leaked documents from Alabuga that the AP previously reported on, the modifications found in wreckage in Ukraine are the most recent in a line of innovations that started when Russia started purchasing drones directly from Iran in the fall of 2022.
Prior to localizing production, Iran transported over 600 disassembled drones to Russia in early 2023 for reassembling. The design was modified in 2024.
According to an AP investigation, experts equipped some drones with cameras and carried out a scheme known as Operation False Target, which involved making decoys to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.
Alabuga also altered the Shahed to make it more deadly by producing a thermobaric drone that can crush eyes, cause brain damage, and collapse lungs by sucking up all the oxygen in its path. Additionally, the warhead’s size was increased.
AI and jet-powered drones
According to Fabian Hinz, a specialist on Russian and Iranian drones at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, Iran supplied a jet-powered Shahed that Russia tested in Ukraine in at least one instance.
In May, Ukraine’s air force discovered two additional jet-powered Shaheds, although it doesn’t seem like they’ve been used much.
According to Hinz, this could be as a result of the Iranian design’s usage of a very advanced jet engine that also drives Iran’s cruise missiles. Even if the engine is replaced with a less expensive Chinese one, he said, it is probably too costly to use nightly in Ukraine.
Beskrestnov pointed to the drone’s AI computer platform, camera, and radio link, stating that the components in the most recent discovery in Ukraine are likewise quite costly. Although the reason for its deployment is unknown, Beskrestnov proposed that it might be used to target vital infrastructure, such as electrical transmission towers.
The Shahed drone’s earlier iterations were unable to alter their flight course after launch or strike a moving object. David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington stated that they were easier to shoot down since they occasionally ended up going in circles throughout Ukraine before hitting a target.
According to the experts, the radio link enables an operator from Russia to communicate with the drone, introduce a new target, and maybe operate multiple drones simultaneously.
According to Beskrestnov, the remotely operated Shahed is very resistant to jamming and resembles the drones Russia now uses on the front lines.
He claimed that because the drone has eight antennas instead of four, Ukraine will find it more difficult to overwhelm it with electronic warfare.
According to Beskrestnov, the new drone bears indications that indicate the anti-jamming unit was manufactured in Iran within the last 12 months and resembles Iranian parts found in previous Shahed models.
According to Hinz, such sophisticated antennas have been discovered on Iranian missiles bound for Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen but have not yet been observed on drones used in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense told AP in a statement that it has discovered drones with eight and twelve antennas manufactured in Russia and China during the previous four months.
Both Russia and Iran have managed to acquire Western technology in spite of restrictions.
In the event that communications are blocked, the drone’s AI computer platform can assist it in navigating on its own. During Operation Spiderweb, Ukraine deployed drones to target Russian air sites that housed strategic bombers with nuclear capabilities, utilizing similar technology to attack planes deep inside Russia.
Adapting strategies
Russia is simultaneously altering its strategy and advancing its technology.
Moscow is lowering the Shahed drones to prevent radio detection and flying them at high altitudes where Ukrainian gunmen cannot reach them.
According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, it is also conducting large-scale group attacks on cities, sometimes using drones to dive-bomb a target.
By firing a wave of decoys followed by one or two with a warhead, the drones can be used to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses or to clear a way for cruise missiles.
The strategies seem to be effective.
The Ukrainian air force shared data on Russian drone strikes on Ukraine online for nearly a year, which AP gathered.
Russia dramatically increased its attacks following the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump in January, according to a research. Additionally, Russian strikes have significantly increased since March, just before it was revealed that Russia was employing Shahed drones equipped with sophisticated jammers.
Only around 6% of drones were able to hit a visible target in November 2024, but by June, that number had increased to almost 16%. Nearly 50% of drones were able to pass through Ukraine’s air defenses on some nights.
The success of the Shaheds, according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, is probably due to Russia’s increased employment of drones, including decoys, as well as changes in tactics and technology.
However, even though Russia seems to be getting more successful at attacking Ukraine, it’s unclear if this trend will continue.
According to Albright, Israel’s attacks on Iran will undoubtedly harm Russia in the long run.
He claimed that Iran will no longer be able to provide Moscow with the same level of support.
This article has been updated to reflect that, in November 2024, rather than November 2022, only about 6% of drones struck a visible target.
Associated Press journalists Lydia Doye in London, Volodymyr Yurchuk and Illia Novikov in Kyiv, Ukraine, and Sam Mednick in Tel Aviv, Israel, contributed to this report.
