By the Fourth of July weekend, a tropical system may develop over the northern Gulf or off the Southeast U.S. due to a front that has stalled across the Florida peninsula later this week.
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Although the National Hurricane Center is currently maintaining development odds low, it wouldn’t be shocking if development odds increased in the coming days due to the region’s warm seas and the propensity of old frontal zones to squeeze off tropical systems at this time of year.
Forecast models limit development, at least for the time being. The few scenarios that do spin something up mainly point to a disorganized holiday rainmaker for sections of the Gulf Coast or the Southeast U.S.
Nevertheless, because of the system’s closeness to land, locals and visitors planning a beach vacation in the area may want to periodically check the forecast this week.
A rainy Fourth for Florida
If something were to form, it would probably move from the beaches of Georgia and South Carolina into the northern Gulf, following the former front’s east-west course north of South Florida. Although there are light steering patterns, the main low-pressure area in southeast Florida will remain north of us due to the western side of the Bermuda high.
Unstable weather and increased chances of rain throughout the holiday weekend due to the juicy air surrounding the southern edge of any system that forms will be the primary problem for South Florida.
In any case, much of the Sunshine State, particularly from Central Florida into southern Georgia and along Florida’s Gulf Coast, is expected to experience a wet late week and Fourth of July weekend.
In order to determine the specifics of where places will be most impacted, we will want to keep an eye on where a more concentrated area of low pressure attempts to emerge this week.
Barry barely a blip and dissipates inland
We predicted in Friday’s newsletter that the disturbance will overachieve over the weekend, and it did. On Sunday, it briefly became Tropical Storm Barry before making landfall as a Tropical Depression on Sunday evening.
Parts of Mexico have experienced significant rainfall as the primary effect of the brief storm.
The hurricane season’s first two named storms, Andrea and Barry, combined to produce a meager 0.6 on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, scale and remained as tropical storms for barely a full day.
The season’s first two storms have never generated so little activity as shown by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, since at least 1950.
The Local 10 Weather Authority’s 2025 hurricane survival handbook can be downloaded by clicking HERE.
